The Pragati Leadership Blog

Let's talk Leadership!

What could employment look like in 2040?

42739804 - back view of businesswoman working with modern virtual technologies

Recently, my neighbour and future-enthusiast, Ashish Joshi, shared an example of how new technology like 3D printing could impact jobs. He quotes a scenario where you walk into a shoe store, put your feet on a scanner and the digital blueprint of your feet and data of bones and muscle structure is passed to a computing device which selects the material and design and using a 3D printer, prints a set of shoes! Such a scenario almost renders many aspects of manufacturing, brands, storage, logistics and supply chain redundant. 3D printing of houses is already a reality. Imagine a future where 3D printing of entire buildings is an affordable technology. What would happen to the construction business and the millions it employs?

It isn’t only 3D printing. Things are changing faster than ever before. Self-driven cars, internet via hot-air balloons, hyperloop and electric sports cars! We live in times many had never even imagined while growing up. I found myself dwelling upon how entirely different the future of employment may be by the year 2040. Here’s what it might look like:

  1. Employee health checks via fitness trackersand other wearable technology. Data on sleep, blood pressure and exercise could be used by organisations (or health professionals) to check with employees why they haven’t been sleeping well of late… Is it a work issue or a personal one; and whether they could do anything do help? Big data meets healthcare meets HR!

Privacy and legal implications could be potential roadblocks but it remains to be seen            whether these will also change along with our world.

  1. Neural scans for hiring. We’re  already using psychometrics pretty effectively and in the future scans of the brain could suggest talent in certain areas. This could influence hiring, replace IQ tests, help us spot genius much earlier in schools, influence careers, reduce struggles occurring from unsuitable academic or career choices.
  1. Business travel could become entirely redundant. Technology that enables life-like video-conference environments may replace the need to travel. Remote teams may not feel that remote anymore. Think Telepresence or augmented reality meets social media!

This would mean employees spend less time on the road and spend more time with               family. Could this mean new things for the aviation and the hospitality industry and             for those who are employed there?

  1. The above technology may impact classroom training as well. Current e-learning and MOOC technology offers poor alternatives to the human interaction that participants desire in workshops but this could be quite different in 2040. Once again, technologies such as Tele-presence, augmented reality and social media may blend together to provide a cogent answer to this challenge. My friend Jatin Panchal, a robotics and automation enthusiast, also points to the emergence of technologies such as Sixth Sense that could revolutionize education.
  1. Learning consultants in 2040 may get gigs only if they are globally acknowledged domain-experts as technology will shrink distances and costs, enabling greater access to bonafide experts.
  1. Large scale Job Disruption will have taken place: With automation and robotics set to replace many jobs, the fear that many people may find their old job extinct is real. Job disruption has happened before and it is going to happen again. See this excellent report from the World Economic Forum to understand what kind of job disruption has already taken place.

What could new jobs look like in 2040?

Some suggest that creative work (that computers cannot currently replicate) will be the jobs of the future. However, we already have software that can create music and write jokes. How quickly such software may compete with (if not replace) musicians and comedians remains to be seen.

Sustainability is already assuming very high importance for countries and businesses. In the future, it will be de rigueur. Legal / regulatory compliance advisers, environmentalists / carbon advisers could become essential roles for all companies.

Assuming that most things urban will be automated (think driverless cars, computerized flight, robot-run customer care, self-service kiosks) what will human beings occupy themselves with? Could it be art? Or will more and more humans shift to places where urbanization and automation still hasn’t reached? Will we see a sharper global divide between advanced, urban dwellers and relatively backward semi-urban dwellers?

Or will we see human beings move towards professions that robots may not be able to perform? Medical professionals, care givers, counsellors, artists and performers – could these be the careers of the future? Does this mean that our education must change from school upwards in order to prepare for a future like this? What does this mean for HR professionals of the future? These thoughts and the work of people like Brunello Cucinelli and Liz Ryan suggest that our school curricula may need to focus a lot more on the humanities than it does today.

Ashish points to the move away from full time to part time work and the imminent replacement of permanent employment with on-demand specialized workers / consultants. HR will need to build new models and new capabilities for engaging and paying the workforce of the future.

The aforesaid report from the WEF clearly states that governments, education and businesses have to “put talent development and future workforce strategy front and centre to their growth” in order to survive the coming disruption. This is great news for the HR and L&D fraternity. The CHRO will be as prized an asset as the CFO soon and many of the issues that they raise will get an eager hearing. We may see Chief Learning Officers and CHROs finally ascend to the CEO chair.

Alternatively, in a scenario where most jobs are done by robots and computers, could we see a future where the “Human Resource” department is a very small one? A highly specialised, much evolved one for sure, given the nature of the few workers who will still inhabit the workspace.

What other changes do you visualize in the 2040 workplace?

Whether you are an organisation or an individual, what are you doing to remain relevant in the workplace of the future? What steps must we take to prepare our kids for this future?

This is a discussion that will evolve. Do share your views in the comments section.

By Aman Zaidi

Advertisements
Leave a comment »

Why Wholesome Leadership is Needed in a World of Disruption

picture1

The external environment for an organization today can be confusing, simply because things change so fast, making it difficult for leaders to get a handle on them, and take the right decisions. This used to be called VUCA – Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous, but these days I prefer RUPT – Rapid, Unpredictable, Paradoxical and Tangled.

When the world is RUPT, you can be sure that someone will DISRUPT! Someone will come out with a completely new paradigm, possibly a product or service so revolutionary that it leaves everyone else behind.

The only way to survive in this RUPT world is for us to be the ones who DISRUPT, find new paradigms and solutions that will be relevant in the future.

Organizations that couldn’t do this fell by the wayside, even one-time giants like Kodak, who didn’t see the impact of digital photography on their business, or Xerox, who couldn’t match the competitive costing of Canon.

Today, there are even more revolutionary and far-reaching changes affecting the business environment. The reality of today has caught up with the science fiction of only some years ago. An example is a ‘medical tricorder’ in the Star Trek TV serial, where many medical parameters of a person could be gauged by a single device, and that too, remotely. Today, the technology exists for this to be possible.

Those companies will survive that will be able to continuously deliver value to all stakeholders.

It’s clear that everything will be disrupted, the only question is ‘when?’.

So how can the leaders of today navigate this disruption and create organizations that flourish in the future? I will share two key concepts that are very valuable in this context.

The OODA Loop:

A model created by Col John Boyd of the US Airforce, who’s considered the ‘father’ of the F-16, the OODA loop was defined for combat flying, but is so relevant to business. OODA is an acronym for :

  • Observeloop
  • Orient
  • Decide
  • Act.

Before we see how it applies to business, let’s understand it in its original context – combat flying. If I’m a fighter pilot, I need to constantly see what the enemy pilot is doing with his aircraft. I need to observe closely, and in 360 degrees. Then, based on the moves he’s making, I have to orient my thinking very fast, and, with the help of my thinking, knowledge, intuition and creativity, I must evaluate my options. Next, I need to outsmart him, and decide on what would be the best course of action for me. Then of course, I must act based on my decision. But in the meantime, he has moved as well, and once again, I must observe his moves – that’s why OODA is a loop.

Let’s see how OODA applies in our world of work.

Observe:

We need to observe how the world is changing, and our perception needs to be accurate. But perception is not a simple thing, it’s a complex thing, because you can see the same thing in many different ways. You may have to look beyond the obvious, and a lot of good entrepreneurial practice comes from good observation.

What’s happening in your field of work? What will be the impact of high speed communication, such as 4G, or of the Internet of Things (IoT)? Can you find new ways to offer value to your customers, before competitors do? We need to observe culture, values, technology and cost structures to find the answers to some of these questions.

Orient

When you observe in 360 degrees, you may gather intelligence about many different types of development and changes. Now the challenge is to integrate this knowledge, and orient yourselves as to what your choices are. This is the time when you need to innovate and connect the dots, using creative thinking, and even your intuition.

For instance, in my work in Learning & Development, I can see that 4G will revolutionize communication and connection. I can also see the new concept of Accelerated Learning, and I know that medical science is making rapid strides in the area of neurosciences. Can I integrate these seemingly unconnected developments and create the connection? Can I disrupt learning by providing breakthrough value through this integration?

Decide

You have used your creativity and innovation to identify the choices before you, now you need to decide which choice you make. Is it new product development, or a new services, or a new way to manage operations and costs, or delivery? What’s your chosen mode of disruption?

Act

Act on your decision. There are new and interesting ways to launch, such as ‘frugal experimentation’. In today’s world, you need to move fast. Before others even know what’s happening, you have already observed, oriented, decided and acted.

By Arun Wakhlu

 

 

8 Comments »